My birthday was on Sunday. Facebook will tell you how many people have posted on your timeline for your birthday. I started looking back at the history of post to my timeline on my birthday, and it made me curious. Could I predict how many friends would post to my timeline this year?
I specifically looked for the post that said something like this:
I found data for 2007 – 2014, and created this graph.
Clearly, there were some outliers, so I removed them.
That data sure did look linear, so I added the linear regression.
Based on the regression (look at that r^2), I predicted that 53 friends would post to my timeline for my birthday 2015.
And the official Facebook results:
I would say I have a pretty good model. If this trend continues, I am predicting 59 friends will post to my timeline for my birthday 2016.