{"id":32,"date":"2015-08-13T12:51:23","date_gmt":"2015-08-13T17:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/?p=32"},"modified":"2016-10-10T20:22:56","modified_gmt":"2016-10-11T01:22:56","slug":"facebook-birthday-posts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/2015\/08\/13\/facebook-birthday-posts\/","title":{"rendered":"Facebook Birthday Posts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My birthday was on Sunday.\u00a0 Facebook will tell you how many people have posted on your timeline for your birthday.\u00a0 I started looking back at the history of post to my timeline on my birthday, and it made me curious.\u00a0 Could I predict how many friends would post to my timeline this year?<\/p>\n<p>I specifically looked for the post that said something like this:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/post-number.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-34\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/post-number-300x96.jpg\" alt=\"post number\" width=\"300\" height=\"96\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/post-number-300x96.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/post-number.jpg 420w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I found data for 2007 &#8211; 2014, and created this graph.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/all-data.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-37\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/all-data-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"all data\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/all-data-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/all-data.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Clearly, there were some outliers, so I removed them.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/outliers-removed.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-38\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/outliers-removed-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"outliers removed\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/outliers-removed-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/outliers-removed.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That data sure did look linear, so I added the linear regression.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-36\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-1-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"regression 1\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-1.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Based on the regression (look at that r^2), I predicted that 53 friends would post to my timeline for my birthday 2015.<\/p>\n<p>And the official Facebook results:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/results.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-35\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/results-300x122.jpg\" alt=\"results\" width=\"300\" height=\"122\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/results-300x122.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/results.jpg 342w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I would say I have a pretty good model.\u00a0 If this trend continues, I am predicting 59 friends will post to my timeline for my birthday 2016.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-39\" src=\"http:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-2-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"regression 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-2-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/regression-2.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My birthday was on Sunday.\u00a0 Facebook will tell you how many people have posted on your timeline for your birthday.\u00a0 I started looking back at the history of post to my timeline on my birthday, and it made me curious.\u00a0 Could I predict how many friends would post to my timeline this year? I specifically [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[8,7],"class_list":["post-32","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-calculator","tag-birthday","tag-regression"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32\/revisions\/40"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.parentfunction.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}